By Stephen C. Schultz Therapists are highly trained to guide, support, and assess progress. Yet, research continues to show that even experienced clinicians have mixed results at predicting which clients will improve, drop out, or struggle in therapy. This isn’t a critique of therapists—it’s a reality supported by data. And for those who place trust in residential treatment programs—families, school districts, educational consultants, and Managed Care Organizations (MCOs)—this insight is critical. At Oxbow Academy , we take this seriously. That’s why we use validated, research-backed tools to supplement clinical intuition and track meaningful progress in real time. Research Shows: Intuition Isn’t Enough In a foundational study by Hannan et al. (2005), therapists failed to recognize which of their clients were likely to experience treatment failure—even when objective outcome data pointed to risks. Similarly, Hatfield et al. (2010) demonstrated that therapists tend to overestima...
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